Estimated ESS is calculated as ‘worst case scenario’/highest possible if you stick to the workout instructions. So in this example if you ride 1:50 at exactly 199 W (upper limit) that would result in ESS 103. The instructions are to stay below 199 W so your actual ESS should be lower and it’s totally fine if it’s lower.
The AI model does not plan by ESS. It plans by time you spent at different power values, how those times and power values are distributed, etc → the ground truth of what your training actually looks like. ESS is a summarizing metric that washes over a lot of the important details of a training session. We do use it for recovery between session planning so it that sense it makes sense to assume the worst case for recovery: highest possible ESS.
We do not want you to fall into the ‘chasing ESS’ trap. It’s not about hitting a certain ESS per week but spending the right amount of time at the right power intensities with adequate recovery.